Wrapping Up 2024 | Angel Fire Market Report
2024 Recap and 2025 Outlook
Annual Market Update
The 2024 numbers are out for the Angel Fire real estate market, and our first impression is, wow, what an interesting market Angel Fire experienced!
When we do our year end deep dive we look at Sold Properties, broken down by price, and track the trends of the last 5 years then compare that to the Inventory on the market at the first of every year. This reveals what directions the market is headed, and our goal with this information is that every buyer and seller in our markets make informed decisions when it comes to your real estate decisions!
This is a trend we’ve actually seen over the last 5 years: continual increase in median price and decrease in units sold, as is shown here.
The number of home sales has been declining since the COVID peak, which is expected – the market needed to normalize. Nationally, home sales were also down, so Angel Fire is in line with the rest of the country.
Why Aren’t People Transacting?
There are a lot of factors that contribute: Inventory: If there aren’t any homes to buy, Buyers simply can’t transact. Overpricing: When a segment of that limited inventory is overpriced, the buyers aren’t engaging.
Interest Rates & Values: Both reached a 5-year peak in 2024, and together, they make homes significantly less affordable. In a vacation home market like ours, that doesn’t necessarily mean buyers can’t afford the home; rather, they don’t want to.
Discerning Buyer Behavior: As we move away from a seller’s market, buyers have been pushing back on price. They are negotiating more on price and other terms, and they are willing to walk away or wait for a different home.
It was an Election Year: Many Americans don’t make this type of buying/selling decision during such a time. However, we’ve seen a strong improvement in consumer confidence and activity just in the first couple weeks og January.
New Construction: The increased buyers opting for new construction doesn’t show as home buyers in the resale market. The transactions are happening, but we’re not seeing them in this resale data.
Median Price
The median price for Angel Fire was up 6% in 2024 to $557,000 (for perspective, the median home price pre-Covid was $359,000!). However, does an increase in Median Sale Price mean the value of each home increased by 6%?
Unfortunately, no. We do 100+ home valuations per year, and have a unique insight that shows us values have been stable in 2024. Micro-segments of the market saw inclines and declines, but overall STABLE VALUES was the theme of 2024.
So what caused that increase in the median home price? Two things:
- The under-$500,000 price point is disappearing in our area.
- There was a tiny increase in home sales over $1.5M (Keep in mind, it’s a small market, so little changes in the luxury price points cause a significant shift in our averages.)
Looking Ahead to 2025
Now looking forward to 2025 – those steady values we saw last year are expected to continue, nationally and locally.
The 2025 Home Price Forecast, by these 21 different economists in the graph below, predicts anywhere from a decrease of 2% to an increase of 5.5%. The average of these forecasts is a 2.9% increase in value nationally in 2025.
Slightly more buyers and sellers are expected to enter the market this year, continuing a strong, balanced market, as is forecasted to the left. These national numbers show the same decline from 2021 through 2024 that we’ve seen locally. We expect the national predictions of an increase in 2025 to be reflected locally as well.
Advice for Buyers and Sellers
So if we could give one piece of advice to a buyer for 2025, what would it be?
Be patient and diligent in finding the right home. With constricted inventory, you have to be patient, and when great homes come on the market, they will move fast. So know exactly what you want and what you’re willing to pay for it, so when it hits the market, you’re ready to act quickly.
And our one piece of advice for sellers in 2025?
If you’re thinking of selling in the next few years, do it in 2025. You’ve realized the max gains in the shortest time frame during the COVID market, and now values are holding steady at or near that peak. Knowing that every cycle has periods of decline, if you’re considering selling, we encourage you to look into it now.
As we move forward into 2025, we’ll keep you updated with the local market and all the dynamics discussed today. If you want to brainstorm together on your unique situation, give Tara Chisum or Kate Schoepfle a call at 575.613.1810 or contact us via our website.
